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Table 2 Multivariable adjusted model output parameters using variables in the extended risk score

From: Development and validation of a model to predict cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal stroke in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease

Variable

Parameter estimate

HR (95% CI)

p

Age, per 10-year increase

0.311034

1.36 (1.27–1.47)

< 0.0001

Stroke

0.520675

1.68 (1.48–1.91)

< 0.0001

Myocardial infarction

0.382486

1.47 (1.31–1.63)

< 0.0001

eGFR

  

< 0.0001

 HR for 10 unit increase to 80 mL/min/1.73 m2

− 0.157483

0.85 (0.82–0.89)

 

 HR for 10 unit increase above 80 mL/min/1.73 m2

0.069763

1.07 (1.02–1.13)

 

Male

0.347975

1.42 (1.24–1.61)

< 0.0001

NYHA Class (No CHF is reference)

  

< 0.0001

 I

0.151523

1.16 (0.91–1.49)

 

 II

0.352289

1.42 (1.22–1.66)

 

 III

0.395279

1.48 (1.15–1.92)

 

 IV

1.472099

4.36 (1.88–10.10)

 

Non-HDL-c, HR for 10-unit increase in mg/dL

0.031708

1.03 (1.02–1.05)

< 0.0001

Insulin use

0.286234

1.33 (1.18–1.51)

< 0.0001

Diastolic blood pressure

  

< 0.0001

 HR for 10 mmHg increase to 80

− 0.130286

0.88 (0.82–0.95)

 

 HR for 10 mmHg increase above 80

0.190161

1.21 (1.09–1.34)

 

Heart rate

  

0.0001

 HR for 10 bpm increase to 60

− 0.370442

0.69 (0.55–0.87)

 

 HR for 10 bpm increase above 60

0.104525

1.11 (1.05–1.17)

 

Albuminuria (reference is none)

  

0.0002

 Microalbuminuria

0.256595

1.29 (1.12–1.49)

 

 Macroalbuminuria

0.368159

1.45 (1.13–1.85)

 

Coronary artery disease

0.205405

1.23 (1.10–1.38)

0.0004

Atrial flutter or fibrillation

0.283484

1.33 (1.13–1.55)

0.0004

Body mass index

  

0.0005

 HR for 1 kg/m2 increase to 25 kg/m2

− 0.098754

0.91 (0.86–0.95)

 

 HR for 1 kg/m2 increase above 25 kg/m2

0.004252

1.00 (0.99–1.02)

 

Smoking (reference is never)

  

0.0009

 Current

0.290684

1.34 (1.13–1.58)

 

 Former

− 0.012079

0.99 (0.88–1.11)

 

Any diabetes-specific microvascular comorbidity (blindness, amputation, foot ulcer, diabetic neuropathy, or retinopathy)

0.147577

1.16 (1.04–1.30)

0.0101

≥ 50% stenosis of carotid artery

0.243316

1.28 (1.05–1.55)

0.0152

Dyslipidemia

− 0.146350

0.86 (0.76–0.98)

0.0229

COPD

0.185822

1.20 (1.02–1.43)

0.0323

  1. COPD: chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder; eGFR: estimated glomerular filtration rate; HDL-c: high-density lipoprotein cholesterol; NYHA: New York Heart Association
  2. * The baseline survival function is 0.4610 at 1 year, 0.2211 at 2 years, 0.1024 at 3 years, and 0.0480 at 4 years
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Cardiovascular Diabetology

ISSN: 1475-2840