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Table 2 Adjusted hazard ratios for AF, TIA/ischemic stroke, cardiac mortality and total mortality across quartiles of glycemic variability

From: Higher long-term visit-to-visit glycemic variability predicts new-onset atrial fibrillation in patients with diabetes mellitus

Outcome Group No Event (%) Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4
HR (95% C.I.) p HR (95% C.I.) p HR (95% C.I.) p HR (95% C.I.) p
AF FGCV_Q1 6726 514 (7.64) ref   ref   ref   ref  
FGCV_Q2 7099 616 (8.68) 1.09 (0.97–1.23) 0.137 1.08 (0.96–1.22) 0.199 1.11 (0.97–1.28) 0.138 1.09 (0.94- 1.25) 0.259
FGCV_Q3 6641 643 (9.68) 1.24 (1.10–1.39) < 0.001 1.18 (1.04–1.33) 0.008 1.12 (0.97–1.28) 0.128 0.99 (0.85- 1.14) 0.850
FGCV_Q4 6780 989 (14.59) 2.00 (1.80–2.22) < 0.001 1.74 (1.55–1.96) < 0.001 1.45 (1.26–1.66) < 0.001 1.12 (0.96- 1.29) 0.148
P for trend   < 0.001   < 0.001 0.2839
TIA / stroke FGCV_Q1 6726 376 (5.59) ref   ref   ref   ref  
FGCV_Q2 7099 407 (5.73) 1.00 (0.87–1.15) 0.971 0.98 (0.85–1.14) 0.823 1.10 (0.88–1.36) 0.413 0.98 (0.78- 1.23) 0.860
FGCV_Q3 6641 453 (6.82) 1.21 (1.05–1.38) 0.007 1.06 (0.92–1.23) 0.402 1.13 (0.91–1.40) 0.270 0.92 (0.73–1.16) 0.497
FGCV_Q4 6780 567 (8.36) 1.53 (1.34–1.74) < 0.001 1.34 (1.16–1.55) < 0.001 1.34 (1.08–1.66) 0.007 1.04 (0.83–1.31) 0.736
P for trend   < 0.001 < 0.001 0.006 0.785
Total mortality FGCV_Q1 6726 522 (7.76) ref   ref   ref   ref  
FGCV_Q2 7099 615 (8.66) 1.03 (0.92–1.16) 0.592 1.03 (0.91–1.16) 0.649 1.05 (0.88–1.27) 0.565 0.96 (0.79–1.15) 0.639
FGCV_Q3 6641 816 (12.29) 1.50 (1.34–1.67) < 0.001 1.43 (1.27–1.61) < 0.001 1.31 (1.10–1.56) 0.003 1.00 (0.84–1.20) 0.967
FGCV_Q4 6780 1589 (23.44) 3.15 (2.85–3.48) < 0.001 2.70 (2.42–3.02) < 0.001 2.38 (2.02–2.80) < 0.001 1.33 (1.12–1.58) 0.001
P for trend   < 0.001 < 0.001 < 0.001 < 0.001
Cardiac mortality FGCV_Q1 6726 92 (1.37) ref   ref   ref   ref  
FGCV_Q2 7099 111 (1.56) 1.05 (0.80–1.39) 0.714 1.02 (0.76–1.37) 0.901 1.00 (0.68–1.46) 0.992 0.97 (0.66–1.42) 0.869
FGCV_Q3 6641 142 (2.14) 1.47 (1.13–1.91) 0.003 1.18 (0.89–1.58) 0.256 1.07 (0.74–1.55) 0.723 0.90 (0.61–1.33) 0.609
FGCV_Q4 6780 270 (3.98) 3.04 (2.40–3.85) < 0.001 1.91 (1.45–2.51) < 0.001 1.53 (1.08–2.17) 0.017 1.05 (0.72–1.52) 0.810
P for trend   < 0.001 < 0.001 < 0.001 0.5772
Non-cardiac mortality FGCV_Q1 6726 430 (6.39) ref   ref   ref   ref  
FGCV_Q2 7099 504 (7.10) 1.03 (0.90–1.17) 0.675 1.03 (0.90–1.18) 0.678 1.07 (0.87–1.32) 0.532 0.95 (0.77–1.18) 0.647
FGCV_Q3 6641 674 (10.15) 1.50 (1.33–1.69) < 0.001 1.48 (1.30–1.68) < 0.001 1.38 (1.13–1.68) 0.002 1.03 (0.84–1.27) 0.770
FGCV_Q4 6780 1319 (19.45) 3.17 (2.84–3.54) < 0.001 2.86 (2.53–3.23) < 0.001 2.67 (2.22–3.21) < 0.001 1.41 (1.15–1.71) < 0.001
P for trend   < 0.001 < 0.001 < 0.001 < 0.001
AF HVS_Q1 6778 518 (7.64) ref   ref   ref   ref  
HVS_Q2 7855 733 (9.33) 1.30 (1.16–1.45) < 0.001 1.29 (1.15–1.45) < 0.001 1.22 (1.07–1.40) 0.003 1.11 (0.97–1.27) 0.138
HVS_Q3 6396 732 (11.44) 1.64 (1.47–1.84) < 0.001 1.60 (1.42–1.80) < 0.001 1.37 (1.20–1.57) < 0.001 1.17 (1.02–1.34) 0.024
HVS_Q4 6217 779 (12.53) 1.97 (1.76–2.20) < 0.001 1.99 (1.77–2.25) < 0.001 1.57 (1.37–1.81) < 0.001 1.29 (1.12–1.50) < 0.001
P for trend   < 0.001 < 0.001 < 0.001 < 0.001
TIA / stroke HVS_Q1 6778 363 (5.36) ref   ref   ref   ref  
HVS_Q2 7855 507 (6.45) 1.25 (1.09–1.43) 0.001 1.22 (1.06–1.40) 0.006 1.22 (0.99–1.50) 0.059 1.07 (0.87–1.32) 0.515
HVS_Q3 6396 504 (7.88) 1.55 (1.35–1.77) < 0.001 1.42 (1.23–1.63) < 0.001 1.41 (1.15–1.73) 0.001 1.19 (0.96–1.48) 0.107
HVS_Q4 6217 429 (6.90) 1.42 (1.23–1.63) < 0.001 1.34 (1.15–1.56) < 0.001 1.20 (0.96–1.50) 0.110 0.98 (0.78–1.23) 0.846
P for trend   < 0.001 0.001 0.042 0.829
Total mortality HVS_Q1 6778 396 (5.84) ref   ref   ref   ref  
HVS_Q2 7855 821 (10.45) 1.96 (1.74–2.21) < 0.001 1.86 (1.64–2.11) < 0.001 1.72 (1.45–2.06) < 0.001 1.40 (1.17–1.68) < 0.001
HVS_Q3 6396 951 (14.87) 2.91 (2.58–3.27) < 0.001 2.71 (2.39–3.06) < 0.001 2.23 (1.87–2.66) < 0.001 1.67 (1.39 – 2.00) < 0.001
HVS_Q4 6217 1,374 (22.10) 5.07 (4.53–5.67) < 0.001 4.77 (4.23–5.38) < 0.001 3.61 (3.04–4.29) < 0.001 2.43 (2.03–2.90) < 0.001
P for trend   < 0.001 < 0.001 < 0.001 0.032
Cardiac mortality HVS_Q1 6778 85 (1.25) ref   ref   ref   ref  
HVS_Q2 7855 153 (1.95) 1.71 (1.31–2.23) < 0.001 1.42 (1.08–1.89) 0.013 1.40 (1.00–1.97) 0.050 1.18 (0.84–1.67) 0.333
HVS_Q3 6396 155 (2.42) 2.22 (1.70–2.89) < 0.001 1.70 (1.28–2.26) < 0.001 1.27 (0.89–1.81) 0.187 1.03 (0.72–1.48) 0.884
HVS_Q4 6217 222 (3.57) 3.87 (3.01–4.96) < 0.001 2.85 (2.16–3.76) < 0.001 2.04 (1.44–2.88) < 0.001 1.50 (1.06–2.14) 0.024
P for trend   < 0.001 < 0.001 < 0.001 < 0.001
Non-cardiac mortality HVS_Q1 6778 311 (4.59) ref   ref   ref   ref  
HVS_Q2 7855 668 (8.50) 2.03 (1.78–2.32) < 0.001 1.97 (1.71–2.26) < 0.001 1.84 (1.49–2.26) < 0.001 1.47 (1.20–1.82) < 0.001
HVS_Q3 6396 796 (12.45) 3.09 (2.71–3.53) < 0.001 2.97 (2.59–3.40) < 0.001 2.62 (2.14–3.22) < 0.001 1.93 (1.56–2.37) < 0.001
HVS_Q4 6217 1,152 (18.53) 5.40 (4.76–6.12) < 0.001 5.27 (4.61–6.03) < 0.001 4.28 (3.550- 5.23) < 0.001 2.80 (2.28–3.44) < 0.001
P for trend   < 0.001 < 0.001 < 0.001 < 0.001
  1. Model 1: no adjustment. Model 2: adjusted for age, gender, baseline BMI, HTN, COPD, CAD, PAOD, history of TIA/ischemic stroke, baseline FPG, baseline HbA1C, baseline eGFR; Model 3: adjusted for model2 plus echocardiography (LA size, LVEF, LV mass); Model 4: adjusted for model3 plus medications
  2. Abbreviations as Table 1