Fig. 1

Schematic representation of the model structure. NYHA New York Heart Association, HF heart failure. Within each NYHA state patients can either have detected or undetected heart failure. Following the screening strategy patients can be diagnosed with heart failure and transition from the undetected to the detected state may take place. Patients can transition from NYHA IV to NYHA I because of the (small) probability of transitioning to a better NYHA state in 1 month [22]. From the diabetes without HF and any of the NYHA states individuals can die from causes other than HF and transition to ‘Death other’