Table 6 Sensitivity analysis for the forecast of frequency of vascular endpoints and cost-effectiveness using insulin glargine or exenatide per 1,000 patients over 40 years (no discontinuation scenario).
| Â | Long term scenario (without hypoglycaemia risk change) | Long term scenario (with hypoglycaemia risk change) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Exenatide | Glargine | Δ | Exenatide | Glargine | Δ | |
Macrovascular | ||||||
Ischaemic Heart Disease | 122.1 | 115.2 | -6.95 | 122.1 | 115.2 | -6.95 |
Myocardial Infarction | 387.2 | 367.1 | -20.12 | 387.2 | 367.1 | -20.12 |
Congestive heart Failure | 78.2 | 87.2 | 9.07 | 78.2 | 87.2 | 9.07 |
Stroke | 97.5 | 95.7 | -1.86 | 97.5 | 95.7 | -1.86 |
Microvascular | ||||||
Retinopathy | 55.8 | 49.2 | -6.59 | 55.8 | 49.2 | -6.59 |
Nephropathy | 14.0 | 14.0 | 0.01 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 0.01 |
Neuropathy | 13.1 | 10.1 | -3.04 | 13.1 | 10.1 | -3.04 |
Hypoglycaemia events | ||||||
Nocturnal | 12,749 | 35,113 | 22,364 | 12,742 | 51,939 | 39,197 |
Symptomatic | 94,627 | 57,059 | -37,568 | 94,907 | 82,663 | -12,244 |
Severe | 6,626.5 | 6,760.3 | 133.8 | 6,626.5 | 6,760.3 | 133.8 |
Fatal | ||||||
Macrovascular | 449 | 428.4 | -20.5 | 449 | 428.4 | -20.5 |
Microvascular | 13.1 | 11.2 | -1.91 | 13.1 | 11.2 | -1.91 |
Other | 536.8 | 559.4 | 22.59 | 536.8 | 559.4 | 22.59 |
Cost effectiveness | ||||||
Discounted costs | £14,552,192 | £12,505,945 |  | £14,552,192 | £12,505,945 |  |
Discounted QALYS | 7,688 | 8,009 | Â | 7,687 | 7,984 | Â |
ICER (£/QALY) | Dominant (-£6,365) | Dominant (-£6,884) | ||||