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Table 6 Sensitivity analysis for the forecast of frequency of vascular endpoints and cost-effectiveness using insulin glargine or exenatide per 1,000 patients over 40 years (no discontinuation scenario).

From: Evaluation of the cost effectiveness of exenatide versus insulin glargine in patients with sub-optimally controlled Type 2 diabetes in the United Kingdom

  Long term scenario
(without hypoglycaemia risk change)
Long term scenario
(with hypoglycaemia risk change)
Exenatide Glargine Δ Exenatide Glargine Δ
Macrovascular
Ischaemic Heart Disease 122.1 115.2 -6.95 122.1 115.2 -6.95
Myocardial Infarction 387.2 367.1 -20.12 387.2 367.1 -20.12
Congestive heart Failure 78.2 87.2 9.07 78.2 87.2 9.07
Stroke 97.5 95.7 -1.86 97.5 95.7 -1.86
Microvascular
Retinopathy 55.8 49.2 -6.59 55.8 49.2 -6.59
Nephropathy 14.0 14.0 0.01 14.0 14.0 0.01
Neuropathy 13.1 10.1 -3.04 13.1 10.1 -3.04
Hypoglycaemia
events
Nocturnal 12,749 35,113 22,364 12,742 51,939 39,197
Symptomatic 94,627 57,059 -37,568 94,907 82,663 -12,244
Severe 6,626.5 6,760.3 133.8 6,626.5 6,760.3 133.8
Fatal
Macrovascular 449 428.4 -20.5 449 428.4 -20.5
Microvascular 13.1 11.2 -1.91 13.1 11.2 -1.91
Other 536.8 559.4 22.59 536.8 559.4 22.59
Cost effectiveness
Discounted costs £14,552,192 £12,505,945   £14,552,192 £12,505,945  
Discounted QALYS 7,688 8,009   7,687 7,984  
ICER (£/QALY) Dominant (-£6,365) Dominant (-£6,884)