Blood glucose may be an alternative to cholesterol in CVD risk prediction charts

Table 1 Estimated parameters and coefficients of the two models

	Model with glucose		Glucose vs. cholesterol	Model with cholesterol
	Estimate (95% CI)	P-value	Estimate (P-value)	Estimate (95% CI)	P-value
α men	−47.7 (−50.7; -44.4)	<0.001		−47.5 (−50.7; -44.4)	<0.001
p men	9.9 (9.2; 10.6)	<0.001		9.9 (9.2; 10.6)	<0.001
α women	−58.8 (−62.7; -54.9)	<0.001		−58.5 (−62.4; -54.6)	<0.001
p women	12.4 (11.5; 13.2)	<0.001		12.5 (11.7; 13.1)	<0.001
Current smoking	0.37 (0.20; 0.54)	<0.001		0.34 (0.17; 0.51)	<0.001
Systolic blood pressure (mmHg)	0.01 (0.01; 0.02)	<0.001		0.01 (0.01; 0.02)	<0.001
Glucose (mmol/l)	0.10 (0.06; 0.14)	<0.001
Cholesterol (mmol/l)				0.10 (0.00; 0.20)	0.046
Model comparison
Brier score (mean, cross-validated)	2216 x 10^-5		(0.287)	2232 x 10^-5
AUC (cross-validated)	0.9181			0.9169
IDI (glucose vs. cholesterol)			0.009 (0.026)
Model comparison, external validation*
Brier score (mean)	7662 x 10^-5		(0.245)	7744 x 10^-5
AUC	0.8766			0.8737
IDI (glucose vs. cholesterol)			0.029 (<0.001)

*with data from the third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III).
AUC area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve; IDI integrated discrimination improvement.

ISSN: 1475-2840