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Table 1 Characteristics of the included risk prediction models for incident type 2 diabetes

From: Risk prediction models for incident type 2 diabetes in Chinese people with intermediate hyperglycemia: a systematic literature review and external validation study

No.

Author, year

Ethnicity

Derivation sample

Overall risk of bias†

Glycemic categories

Diabetes cases/sample size

Follow-up duration (years)

All-Asian derived models

1

Aekplakorn, 2006 [22]

Asian (Thai)

Non-diabetes*

361/2677

12

High

2

Chien, 2009 [23]

Asian (Chinese)

Non-diabetes*

548/2960

10

High

3

Gao, 2009 [24]

Asian (Indian)

Non-diabetes*

511/3094

11

High

4

Sun, 2009 [25]

Asian (Chinese)

Non-diabetes*

902/20,551

3.2

High

5

Chuang, 2011 [26]

Asian (Chinese)

Non-diabetes*

1261/19,919

5.6

High

6

Liu, 2011 [27]

Asian (Chinese)

Non-diabetes*

304/1457

10

High

7

Doi, 2012 [28]

Asian (Japanese)

Non-diabetes*

286/1935

14

High

8

Heianza, 2012 [29]

Asian (Japanese)

Non-diabetes*

289/7654

5

High

9

Lim, 2012 [30]

Asian (Korean)

Non-diabetes*

436/6342

4

High

10

Xu, 2014 [31]

Asian (Chinese)

Non-diabetes*

836/16,043

5.2

High

11

Ye, 2014 [32]

Asian (Chinese)

Non-diabetes*

924/1912

6

High

12

Nanri, 2015 [33]

Asian (Japanese)

Non-diabetes*

1122/24,950

3

High

13

Liu, 2016 [34]

Asian (Chinese)

Non-diabetes*

215/1857

10.9

High

14

Wang, 2016 [35]

Asian (Chinese)

Non-diabetes*

4726/49,325

5.4

High

15

Zhang, 2016 [36]

Asian (Chinese)

Non-diabetes*

729/12,849

6

High

16

Miyakoshi, 2016 [37]

Asian (Japanese)

Non-diabetes*

138/2080

4.9

High

17

Chen, 2017 [38]

Asian (Chinese)

Non-diabetes*

387/28,251

4.2

High

18

Wen, 2017 [39]

Asian (Chinese)

Non-diabetes*

218/4132

6

High

19

Yokota, 2017 [40]

Asian (Japanese)

IH

252/2105

4.7

Unclear

20

Zhang, 2017 [41]

Asian (Chinese)

Non-diabetes*

702/15,758

6

High

21

Ha, 2018 [42]

Asian (Korean)

Non-diabetes*

37,678/359,349

10.8

High

22

Han, 2018 [43]

Asian (Chinese)

Non-diabetes*

1390/17,690

4

High

23

Hu, 2018 [44]

Asian (Japanese)

Non-diabetes*

2216/30,500

7

High

Asian derived models

24

Ustulin, 2018 [45]

Asian (Korean)

IH

801/1162

4.0

High

25

Yastuya, 2018 [46]

Asian (Japanese)

Non-diabetes*

342/3540

12.2

High

26

Wang, 2019 [47]

Asian (Chinese)

Non-diabetes*

595/5557

3

High

27

Cai, 2020 [48]

Asian (Chinese)

Non-diabetes*

81/1273

3

High

28

Hu, 2020 [49]

Asian (Chinese)

Normoglycemia

171/4833

4.6

High

29

Lin, 2020 [50]

Asian (Chinese)

Non-diabetes*

466/21,844

3.1

High

30

Liu, 2020-1 [51]

Asian (Chinese)

Non-diabetes*

2623/43,404

6.83

Low

31

Liu, 2020-2 [52]

Asian (Chinese)

Non-diabetes*

2151/58,056

2.98

High

32

Ma, 2020 [53]

Asian (Chinese)

Non-diabetes*

256/10,807

6.0

High

33

Shao, 2020 [54]

Asian (Chinese)

Non-diabetes*

257/4498

10

High

34

Wang, 2020 [55]

Asian (Japanese)

Normoglycemia

275/8296

7.75

High

35

Wu, 2020 [56]

Asian (Chinese)

Non-diabetes*

155/16,219

2.66

Unclear

36

Cai, 2021-1 [57]

Asian (Japanese)

Normoglycemia

157/2058

5.1

High

37

Cai, 2021-2 [58]

Asian (Japanese)

Normoglycemia

154/9651

5.4

High

38

Li, 2021 [59]

Asian (Chinese)

Non-diabetes*

74/687

15

High

39

Liang, 2021 [60]

Asian (Chinese)

IH

145/1857

3

High

40

Wu, 2021 [61]

Asian (Chinese)

Non-diabetes*

145/7940

3

High

41

Xu, 2021 [62]

Asian (Chinese)

IGT

493/3105

5

High

Part-Asian derived models

42

Chen, 2009 [63]

Caucasian, Asian, others

Non-diabetes*

362/6060

5

High

43

Bethel, 2013 [20]

Black, Caucasian, Asian, others

IGT

3254/9306

5

Low

44

Hippisley-Cox, 2018 [64]

Caucasian, Chinese, Asian, others

Non-diabetes*

178,314/8,186,705

3.9

Low

Non-Asian derived models

45

Stern, 2002 [8]

Mexican Americans, non-Hispanic whites

Non-diabetes*

269/2903

7.5

High

46

Lindstrom, 2003 [9]

Caucasian

Non-diabetes*

182/4435

10

High

47

Schmidt, 2005 [10]

Caucasian, African Americans

Non-diabetes*

1292/7915

9

High

48

Wilson, 2007 [11]

Caucasian

Non-diabetes*

160/3140

7

Unclear

49

Tuomilehto, 2010 [12]

Caucasian

IGT

398/1160

2.5

High

  1. IH Intermediate hyperglycemia, IGT Impaired glucose tolerance
  2. *In the present study, glycemic category of non-diabetes includes normoglycemia and intermediate hyperglycemia
  3. †The risk of bias of the included prediction model studies was assessed following the short form guidelines of the Prediction study Risk of Bias Assessment tool (PROBAST) [13]