Table 1 Biochemical measurements that potentially mediated the effect of dulaglutide on MACE-single factor analysis

Baseline value for dulaglutide^b

7.3% (1.1)

88.5 (18.4)

137.1 (16.6)

2.56 (0.98)

1.80 (0.70–6.60)

1.02 (0.07)

0.94 (0.07)

Baseline value for placebo^b

7.4% (1.1)

88.9 (18.6)

137.3 (17.0)

2.56 (0.98)

1.88 (0.70–7.38)

1.02 (0.07)

0.95 (0.07)

LSM change from baseline (CI)

− 0.61 (− 0.65, − 0.58)*

− 1.50 (− 1.70, − 1.31)*

− 1.70 (− 2.07, − 1.33)*

− 0.05 (− 0.08, − 0.02)*

− 3.05 (− 4.35, − 1.75)*

− 0.003 (− 0.006, − 0.000)*

− 0.005 (− 0.008, − 0.001)*

HR of updated mean value of variable on MACE

1.087 (1.033, 1.144)*

0.994 (0.983, 1.005)

0.999 (0.995, 1.004)

1.054 (0.958, 1.159)

1.003 (1.002, 1.004)*

1.876 (0.277, 12.721)

2.645 (0.295, 23.742)

 HR of dulaglutide on MACE (after adjusting for the baseline and updated mean value of the variable)

0.923^c (0.819, 1.039)

0.889^c (0.784, 1.007)

0.880 (0.787, 0.984)

0.937^c

(0.811, 1.082)

0.914^c

(0.804, 1.039)

0.926^c (0.776, 1.104)

0.915^c (0.721, 1.160)

 Percentage mediated by updated mean towards the effect of dulaglutide on MACE^d

36.1

6.2

− 1.7

48.0

28.5

23.0

45.0

HR of change from baseline value of variable on MACE

1.047 (1.000, 1.008)*

0.998 (0.988, 1.008)

1.000 (0.996, 1.003)

1.064 (0.984, 1.151)

1.002 (1.002, 1.003)*

1.434 (0.310, 6.631)

1.828 (0.296, 11.284)

 HR of dulaglutide on MACE (after adjusting for the baseline and change from baseline value of the variable)

0.900^c (0.801, 1.013)

0.896^c (0.791, 1.014)

0.880 (0.787, 0.984)

0.937^c (0.811, 1.083)

0.910^c (0.801, 1.035)

0.925^c (0.776, 1.103)

0.913^c (0.720, 1.158)

 Percentage mediated by change from baseline toward the effect of dulaglutide on MACE^d

16.7

12.3

− 1.5

48.6

25.4

22.3

44.2