Predictive value of visit-to-visit blood pressure variability for cardiovascular events in patients with coronary artery disease with and without diabetes mellitus

Table 3 Performance of models predicting MACE in stable CAD patients

Model	Feature	AUC (95% CI)	P value†	P value*	NRI (95% CI)	P value	IDI (95% CI)	P value
Risk factor model	Age + Male + T2DM + Hypertension + Beta-blockers + Number of BP measurements	0.69 (0.65–0.74)	Reference	–	–		–
Model S1	Risk factor model + Mean SBP	0.70 (0.65–0.74)	0.80	Reference	9.4 (− 6.1 to 24.9)	0.23	0.1 (− 0.1 to 0.4)	0.24
Model S2	Model S1 + CV of SBP	0.73 (0.69–0.77)	0.002	0.002	26.3 (10.9–41.8)	< 0.001	2.3 (1.0–3.4)	< 0.001
Model D1	Risk factor model + Mean DBP	0.70 (0.66–0.74)	0.18	Reference	13.8 (− 1.7 to 29.2)	0.080	0.4 (− 0.1 to 0.9)	0.13
Model D2	Model D1 + CV of DBP	0.72 (0.68–0.76)	0.007	0.024	25.2 (9.8–40.7)	0.001	1.6 (0.5–2.8)	0.004

Values for number of BP measurements were ln-transformed before analysis. AUC area under the curve, CI confidence interval, CV coefficient of variation, DBP diastolic blood pressure, IDI integrated discrimination improvement, NRI net reclassification index, SBP systolic blood pressure, T2DM type 2 diabetes mellitus
^†P value from DeLong test for comparison of AUCs; *Comparison of AUCs between model S2 versus S1 and model D2 versus D1

ISSN: 1475-2840