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Table 3 Projected accumulated number of cases based on a 7-year period among 35–64 years old Mexicans under different assumptions based on unadjusted and adjusted 2006 physical inactivity prevalence and 2012 physical inactivity prevalence

From: Cardiovascular and diabetes burden attributable to physical inactivity in Mexico

Outcome ENSANUT 2006a ENSANUT 2012b
Base case scenario Estimates based on unadjusted prevalence of physical inactivity Estimates based on adjusted prevalence of physical inactivity
Increase in events Percent difference change Increase in events Percent difference change
N N % N %
Incidence of CHD 1267,400 ± 9.7 10,300 ± 99.5 0.8 14,200 ± 122.1 1.1
Incidence of stroke 293,400 ± 2.6 2200 ± 19.2 0.8 3200 ± 21.8 1.1
Incidence of T2D 2586,300 ± 26.4 27,100 ± 155.1 1.0 34,000 ± 164 1.3
Total myocardial infarction 294,000 ± 2.8 1500 ± 17.5 0.5 2300 ± 23.5 0.8
CHD mortality 141,900 ± 0.6 350 ± 4.1 0.2 600 ± 5.5 0.4
Stroke mortality 67,000 ± 0.5 400 ± 3.7 0.6 600 ± 4.2 0.9
  1. Plus-minus values—means and SE from the Monte Carlo simulations
  2. Values were rounded to the nearest 100 for all outcomes
  3. Unadjusted—self reported physical inactivity
  4. Adjusted—self reported physical inactivity adjusted for accelerometer values
  5. CHD coronary heart disease, T2D type 2 diabetes
  6. aEstimates are based on physical inactivity prevalence in 2006 (base case scenario)
  7. bEstimates are based on physical inactivity prevalence in 2012