|
n
|
Event
|
Patient*years
|
Incidence
|
Model 1 (95% CI)
|
Model 2 (95% CI)
|
Model 3 (95% CI)
|
---|
Total
|
BMI
|
< 18.5
|
374,501
|
5565
|
3,019,377
|
1.843
|
1.020 (0.993–1.049)
|
1.055 (1.026–1.085)
|
1.053 (1.025–1.083)
|
18.5–23
|
3,867,084
|
62,946
|
31,641,170
|
1.989
|
1 (reference)
|
1 (reference)
|
1 (reference)
|
23–25
|
2,423,219
|
50,163
|
19,850,785
|
2.527
|
1.125 (1.112–1.138)
|
1.040 (1.028–1.052)
|
1.042 (1.030–1.055)
|
25–30
|
2,795,090
|
68,242
|
22,864,770
|
2.985
|
1.290 (1.276–1.304)
|
1.123 (1.111–1.136)
|
1.128 (1.115–1.140)
|
30–
|
337,524
|
9220
|
2,754,059
|
3.348
|
1.606 (1.572–1.642)
|
1.327 (1.298–1.357)
|
1.325 (1.296–1.354)
|
WC (M/F)
|
< 80/75
|
3,621,432
|
44,263
|
29,751,411
|
1.488
|
0.726 (0.717–0.736)
|
0.829 (0.818–0.840)
|
0.836 (0.825–0.848)
|
− 85/80
|
2,327,214
|
43,245
|
19,058,845
|
2.269
|
0.870 (0.859–0.882)
|
0.921 (0.909–0.934)
|
0.927 (0.915–0.939)
|
− 90/85
|
1,936,668
|
46,009
|
15,812,732
|
2.910
|
1 (reference)
|
1 (reference)
|
1 (reference)
|
− 95/90
|
1,134,028
|
33,661
|
9,219,448
|
3.651
|
1.148 (1.132–1.164)
|
1.096 (1.080–1.111)
|
1.092 (1.076–1.107)
|
− 100/95
|
504,432
|
17,713
|
4,085,267
|
4.336
|
1.252 (1.230–1.274)
|
1.176 (1.155–1.196)
|
1.162 (1.142–1.183)
|
≥ 100/95
|
273,644
|
11,245
|
2,202,458
|
5.106
|
1.615 (1.582–1.649)
|
1.410 (1.381–1.440)
|
1.369 (1.341–1.398)
|
Non-diabetic + IFG
|
BMI
|
< 18.5
|
361,941
|
5055
|
2,931,149
|
1.725
|
1.034 (1.004–1.064)
|
1.056 (1.025–1.087)
|
1.058 (1.028–1.089)
|
18.5–23
|
3,653,082
|
54,833
|
29,975,508
|
1.829
|
1 (reference)
|
1 (reference)
|
1 (reference)
|
23–25
|
2,206,558
|
41,998
|
18,127,691
|
2.317
|
1.129 (1.114–1.143)
|
1.050 (1.036–1.063)
|
1.049 (1.036–1.062)
|
25–30
|
2,453,625
|
54,545
|
20,131,059
|
2.709
|
1.288 (1.273–1.303)
|
1.134 (1.120–1.148)
|
1.133 (1.119–1.147)
|
30–
|
279,364
|
6663
|
2,287,495
|
2.913
|
1.541 (1.502–1.581)
|
1.309 (1.275–1.343)
|
1.294 (1.261–1.327)
|
WC (M/F)
|
< 80/75
|
3,490,482
|
40,229
|
28,724,841
|
1.401
|
0.727 (0.717–0.737)
|
0.820 (0.808–0.832)
|
0.833 (0.821–0.845)
|
− 85/80
|
2,148,892
|
37,280
|
17,642,987
|
2.113
|
0.872 (0.859–0.884)
|
0.918 (0.905–0.931)
|
0.926 (0.913–0.940)
|
− 90/85
|
1,722,709
|
37,924
|
14,109,867
|
2.688
|
1 (reference)
|
1 (reference)
|
1 (reference)
|
− 95/90
|
968,520
|
26,661
|
7,904,775
|
3.373
|
1.154 (1.136–1.172)
|
1.107 (1.089–1.124)
|
1.101 (1.083–1.118)
|
− 100/95
|
412,804
|
13,266
|
3,359,409
|
3.949
|
1.244 (1.219–1.269)
|
1.185 (1.161–1.208)
|
1.163 (1.140–1.186)
|
≥ 100/95
|
211,163
|
7734
|
1,711,022
|
4.520
|
1.594 (1.556 –1.634)
|
1.418 (1.384–1.454)
|
1.365 (1.332–1.399)
|
Diabetic
|
BMI
|
< 18.5
|
12,560
|
510
|
88,228
|
5.780
|
1.096 (1.002–1.198)
|
1.119 (1.024–1.224)
|
1.100 (1.006–1.203)
|
18.5–23
|
214,002
|
8113
|
1,665,662
|
4.871
|
1 (reference)
|
1 (reference)
|
1 (reference)
|
23–25
|
216,661
|
8165
|
1,723,094
|
4.739
|
0.993 (0.963–1.024)
|
0.970 (0.940–1.000)
|
0.972 (0.942–1.002)
|
25–30
|
341,465
|
13,697
|
2,733,711
|
5.010
|
1.104 (1.074–1.134)
|
1.053 (1.024–1.082)
|
1.054 (1.025–1.084)
|
30–
|
58,160
|
2557
|
466,564
|
5.480
|
1.486 (1.421–1.554)
|
1.362 (1.301–1.425)
|
1.341 (1.282–1.403)
|
WC (M/F)
|
< 80/75
|
130,950
|
4034
|
1,026,570
|
3.930
|
0.920 (0.886–0.955)
|
0.963 (0.927–1.001)
|
0.965 (0.929–1.003)
|
− 85/80
|
178,322
|
5965
|
1,415,858
|
4.213
|
0.925 (0.895–0.957)
|
0.945 (0.914–0.977)
|
0.949 (0.917–0.981)
|
− 90/85
|
213,959
|
8085
|
1,702,865
|
4.748
|
1 (reference)
|
1 (reference)
|
1 (reference)
|
− 95/90
|
165,508
|
7000
|
1,314,673
|
5.325
|
1.084 (1.050–1.119)
|
1.062 (1.029–1.097)
|
1.054 (1.021–1.089)
|
− 100/95
|
91,628
|
4447
|
725,857
|
6.127
|
1.187 (1.144–1.232)
|
1.156 (1.114–1.200)
|
1.150 (1.108–1.193)
|
≥ 100/95
|
62,481
|
3511
|
491,435
|
7.144
|
1.503 (1.445–1.565)
|
1.419 (1.363–1.477)
|
1.371 (1.317–1.427)
|
- Model 1: adjusted for age and sex
- Model 2: adjusted for model 1 plus smoking, alcohol consumption, regular physical activity, social income, diabetes, hypertension, and dyslipidemia
- Model 3: adjusted for model 2 plus end stage renal failure, history of heart failure or coronary artery disease, hyperthyroidism, malignancy, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
- BMI body mass index, CI confidence interval, F female, IFG impaired fasting glucose, M male, WC waist circumference