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Table 4 Improvements in risk prediction after adding carotid atherosclerosis parameters to a standard risk factor model

From: Prognostic impact of carotid intima-media thickness and carotid plaques on the development of micro- and macrovascular complications in individuals with type 2 diabetes: the Rio de Janeiro type 2 diabetes cohort study

Outcomes

C-statistic

Integrated discrimination improvement index

Carotid atherosclerosis parameters

AUC standard modela

Improvement in AUC

p-value

Absolute

Relative (%)

p-value

Total cardiovascular events

0.769

     

 CCA-IMT (continuous)

 

0.00002 (− 0.009 to 0.009)

0.99

0.008 (− 0.001 to 0.017)

5.4

0.082

 CB-IMT (continuous)

 

0.006 (− 0.005 to 0.018)

0.27

0.009 (− 0.001 to 0.018)

6.6

0.069

 ICA-IMT (continuous)

 

0.006 (− 0.006 to 0.017)

0.33

0.005 (− 0.005 to 0.016)

3.6

0.32

 CCA-IMT (tertiles)

 

0.003 (− 0.009 to 0.014)

0.67

0.009 (0.002 to 0.016)

5.5

0.016

 CB-IMT (tertiles)

 

0.009 (− 0.006 to 0.024)

0.25

0.011 (0.001 to 0.022)

8.4

0.036

 ICA-IMT (tertiles)

 

0.003 (− 0.006 to 0.013)

0.48

0.001 (− 0.006 to 0.008)

1.2

0.72

 CCA-IMT (> 1.0 mm)

 

0.0001 (− 0.004 to 0.004)

0.98

0.002 (− 0.001 to 0.004)

1.2

0.18

 CB-IMT (> 1.2 mm)

 

0.007 (− 0.007 to 0.021)

0.33

0.010 (0 to 0.020)

7.8

0.050

 ICA-IMT (> 0.8 mm)

 

0.009 (− 0.007 to 0.024)

0.29

0.008 (− 0.003 to 0.018)

5.4

0.17

 Carotid plaque score (≥ 3 points)

 

0.009 (− 0.006 to 0.023)

0.24

0.014 (0.001 to 0.027)

7.8

0.040

Renal composite

0.644

     

 ICA-IMT (continuous)

 

0.018 (− 0.007 to 0.042)

0.16

0.010 (− 0.001 to 0.020)

18.5

0.070

 ICA-IMT (tertiles)

 

0.009 (− 0.007 to 0.026)

0.27

0.002 (− 0.004 to 0.008)

1.9

0.57

 ICA-IMT (> 0.8 mm)

 

0.022 (− 0.006 to 0.049)

0.12

0.010 (− 0.001 to 0.020)

14.8

0.071

 Carotid plaque score (≥ 3 points)

 

0.014 (− 0.010 to 0.038)

0.24

0.010 (0.0001 to 0.019)

17.9

0.049

  1. Values in parenthesis are 95% confidence intervals
  2. AUC area under curve, CCA-IMT common carotid artery intima-media thickness, CB-IMT carotid bifurcation intima-media thickness, ICA-IMT internal carotid artery intima-media thickness
  3. aThe standard risk model: age, sex, BMI, smoking, physical activity, diabetes duration, diabetes and anti-hypertensive treatment, mean clinic SBP, presence of micro- and macrovascular complications at baseline (diabetic nephropathy for renal outcomes), serum mean 1st-year HbA1c, HDL- and LDL-cholesterol