Development of predictive risk models for major adverse cardiovascular events among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus using health insurance claims data

Table 3 Predicted risk for the average patient in primary and secondary prevention population

Patient characteristics	Case 1	Case 2
Age	67	73
Gender	Female	Male
Type of insurance	Medicare, other	Medicare, other
Race/ethnicity	White, non-Hispanic	White, non-Hispanic
Region	Mid-West	South
Prior CVD diagnoses	None	CHF (≥ 12 months ago), Other CVD-related condition
aDCSI	1	3
Diabetes-related hospitalizations	No	No
Other recorded diagnoses	Hypertension, hyperlipidemia	Hypertension, hyperlipidemia, infection

Predicted risk^a	MACE (%)	MACE-plus (%)	CVD-related death (%)	MACE (%)	MACE-plus (%)	CVD-related death (%)
At 6 month	0.7	1.1	0.2	3.2	6.1	1.3
At 1 year	1.4	2.2	0.3	5.8	10.6	2.4
At 2 years	2.7	4.3	0.7	10.5	18.5	4.5
At 3 years	4.1	6.4	1.0	14.4	24.3	6.4
At 5 years	6.8	10.6	1.7	21.8	35.2	9.9

aDCSI adapted diabetes complications severity index, CHF congestive heart failure, CVD cardiovascular disease, MACE major adverse cardiovascular event, CI confidence interval
^aPredicted risk for a hypothetical patient based on listed characteristics

ISSN: 1475-2840