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Table 2 Risk models for MACE in the secondary prevention population

From: Development of predictive risk models for major adverse cardiovascular events among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus using health insurance claims data

 

MACE

MACE-plus

CVD-related death

Validation

 C-statistic, training set

0.70

0.72

0.78

 C-statistic, validation set

0.70

0.72

0.77

Predictors

OR (95% CI)

P-value

OR (95% CI)

P-value

OR (95% CI)

P-value

Age group (reference: 50–54 years old)

 55–59 years old

1.08 (0.86, 1.36)

0.513

1.01 (0.85, 1.21)

0.883

1.33 (0.84, 2.11)

0.230

 60–64 years old

1.24 (1.00, 1.54)

0.049*

1.12 (0.95, 1.33)

0.168

1.72 (1.11, 2.66)

0.014*

 65–69 years old

1.35 (1.10, 1.67)

0.005*

1.20 (1.01, 1.41)

0.033*

2.15 (1.41, 3.28)

< 0.001*

 70–74 years old

1.52 (1.24, 1.88)

< 0.001*

1.30 (1.11, 1.54)

0.001*

2.67 (1.76, 4.06)

< 0.001*

 75–79 years old

1.72 (1.40, 2.12)

< 0.001*

1.43 (1.21, 1.68)

< 0.001*

3.13 (2.06, 4.75)

< 0.001*

 80–84 years old

2.20 (1.79, 2.70)

< 0.001*

1.82 (1.55, 2.14)

< 0.001*

4.60 (3.04, 6.97)

< 0.001*

 85 and above

2.23 (1.79, 2.77)

< 0.001*

1.81 (1.52, 2.15)

< 0.001*

4.82 (3.14, 7.39)

< 0.001*

Race (reference: Caucasian)

 African American

    

0.81 (0.70, 0.93)

0.003*

 Asian

    

0.58 (0.37, 0.92)

0.021*

 Other/unknown

    

1.04 (0.93, 1.17)

0.474

Ethnicity (reference: non-Hispanic)

 Hispanic

0.98 (0.82, 1.17)

0.830

0.92 (0.79, 1.08)

0.315

0.69 (0.51, 0.93)

0.016*

 Unknown

1.16 (1.10, 1.24)

< 0.001*

1.14 (1.09, 1.20)

< 0.001*

1.14 (1.03, 1.27)

0.013*

End of baseline period prior to 2011a

1.43 (1.34, 1.53)

< 0.001*

1.39 (1.32, 1.48)

< 0.001*

1.83 (1.67, 2.01)

< 0.001*

Geographic region (reference: South)

 Midwest

    

0.83 (0.75, 0.91)

< 0.001*

 Northeast

    

0.73 (0.63, 0.83)

< 0.001*

 West

    

0.84 (0.73, 0.97)

0.014*

 Other/unknown

    

1.07 (0.85, 1.33)

0.570

Insurance type (reference: health maintenance organization [HMO])

 Point-of-service (POS)

  

1.11 (0.97, 1.27)

0.142

0.79 (0.60, 1.05)

0.105

 Preferred provider organization (PPO)

  

1.21 (1.08, 1.34)

< 0.001*

0.84 (0.69, 1.03)

0.092

 Exclusive provider organization (EPO)

  

1.08 (0.86, 1.36)

0.483

0.58 (0.34, 0.98)

0.043*

 Indemnity (IND)

  

1.29 (1.07, 1.55)

0.007*

1.23 (0.91, 1.66)

0.183

 Other

  

1.01 (0.96, 1.07)

0.631

0.89 (0.81, 0.98)

0.018*

Payer type

 Commercial

0.81 (0.75, 0.89)

< 0.001*

0.77 (0.68, 0.87)

< 0.001*

0.84 (0.67, 1.06)

0.135

Prior CVD diagnoses (ref: no diagnosis)

 Myocardial infarction

1.24 (1.16, 1.33)

< 0.001*

1.13 (1.07, 1.20)

< 0.001*

  

 Stroke

1.34 (1.26, 1.43)

< 0.001*

1.13 (1.06, 1.19)

< 0.001*

  

 Congestive heart failure

1.39 (1.30, 1.49)

< 0.001*

1.91 (1.80, 2.03)

< 0.001*

1.97 (1.78, 2.18)

< 0.001*

Time from last observed CVD diagnosis to end of baseline period, months (reference: less than 1 month)

 1–3 months

0.80 (0.73, 0.87)

< 0.001*

0.76 (0.70, 0.82)

< 0.001*

0.83 (0.74, 0.93)

0.002*

 3–6 months

0.66 (0.60, 0.73)

< 0.001*

0.62 (0.57, 0.67)

< 0.001*

0.63 (0.56, 0.72)

< 0.001*

 6–12 months

0.58 (0.53, 0.63)

< 0.001*

0.52 (0.48, 0.56)

< 0.001*

0.51 (0.45, 0.58)

< 0.001*

 12 months and above

0.56 (0.51, 0.61)

< 0.001*

0.48 (0.45, 0.52)

< 0.001*

0.48 (0.42, 0.54)

< 0.001*

Other CVD-related conditions (i.e., Conditions used to define CVD-related death)

1.10 (1.00, 1.20)

0.043*

1.18 (1.09, 1.27)

< 0.001*

  

At least 1 diabetes-related hospitalization

1.30 (1.23, 1.39)

< 0.001*

1.27 (1.20, 1.33)

< 0.001*

1.36 (1.25, 1.49)

< 0.001*

Adapted diabetes complications severity index

1.10 (1.08, 1.11)

< 0.001*

1.09 (1.07, 1.11)

< 0.001*

1.11 (1.09, 1.13)

< 0.001*

Recorded diagnoses (ref: no diagnosis)

 Mental disorders

    

1.14 (1.05, 1.24)

0.002*

 Chronic pulmonary disease

1.18 (1.11, 1.25)

< 0.001*

1.27 (1.21, 1.34)

< 0.001*

1.28 (1.18, 1.40)

< 0.001*

 Obesity

0.81 (0.74, 0.89)

< 0.001*

  

0.78 (0.68, 0.88)

< 0.001*

 Cancer

    

1.16 (1.05, 1.29)

0.005*

 Peripheral vascular disorders

  

1.07 (1.01, 1.13)

0.017*

  

 Fluid and electrolyte disorders

1.16 (1.09, 1.24)

< 0.001*

1.14 (1.08, 1.21)

< 0.001*

1.15 (1.05, 1.26)

0.002*

 Deficiency anemia

1.19 (1.10, 1.28)

< 0.001*

1.15 (1.08, 1.23)

< 0.001*

1.22 (1.10, 1.35)

< 0.001*

 Erectile dysfunction, organic origin

    

0.60 (0.43, 0.84)

0.003*

 Coagulopathy

  

1.14 (1.05, 1.24)

0.003*

1.17 (1.02, 1.33)

0.024*

 Pulmonary circulation disorders

  

1.21 (1.12, 1.30)

< 0.001*

1.33 (1.18, 1.49)

< 0.001*

Time interval (reference: 0–6 months)

 6–12 months

0.82 (0.76, 0.89)

< 0.001*

0.78 (0.73, 0.83)

< 0.001*

0.89 (0.79, 0.99)

0.030*

 12–18 months

0.77 (0.70, 0.84)

< 0.001*

0.74 (0.69, 0.80)

< 0.001*

0.81 (0.72, 0.93)

0.002*

 18–24 months

0.80 (0.72, 0.89)

< 0.001*

0.70 (0.64, 0.77)

< 0.001*

0.82 (0.71, 0.95)

0.009*

 24–30 months

0.71 (0.62, 0.80)

< 0.001*

0.58 (0.52, 0.66)

< 0.001*

0.78 (0.65, 0.92)

0.004*

 30–36 months

0.67 (0.58, 0.78)

< 0.001*

0.57 (0.50, 0.66)

< 0.001*

0.79 (0.65, 0.96)

0.019*

 36–42 months

0.71 (0.59, 0.84)

< 0.001*

0.63 (0.54, 0.74)

< 0.001*

0.73 (0.58, 0.93)

0.009*

 42–48 months

0.77 (0.63, 0.93)

0.007*

0.70 (0.59, 0.83)

< 0.001*

0.77 (0.59, 1.00)

0.052

 48–54 months

0.61 (0.47, 0.78)

< 0.001*

0.50 (0.39, 0.63)

< 0.001*

0.66 (0.48, 0.90)

0.010*

 54–60 months

0.69 (0.53, 0.91)

0.007*

0.63 (0.49, 0.81)

< 0.001*

0.75 (0.53, 1.05)

0.097

 Over 60 months

0.56 (0.46, 0.69)

< 0.001*

0.50 (0.41, 0.61)

< 0.001*

0.51 (0.38, 0.67)

< 0.001*

  1. CVD cardiovascular disease, MACE major adverse cardiovascular events, OR odds ratio, CI confidence interval
  2. * Indicates statistical significance at the 5% level
  3. aA glycated hemoglobin threshold (i.e., < 8%) was added to Healthcare Effectiveness Data and Information Set (HEDIS) measure for Comprehensive Diabetes Care in 2009 and to the Diabetes Recognition Program of the National Committee for Quality Assurance in 2010, which may have impacted CVD risk in patients with diabetes (See [43])
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Cardiovascular Diabetology

ISSN: 1475-2840