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Table 5 Results of Cox survival analyses for the excess risks associated with 12- and 24-month glycemic variability parameters, divided into tertiles, for the occurrence of future macrovascular complications and mortality

From: Long-term visit-to-visit glycemic variability as predictor of micro- and macrovascular complications in patients with type 2 diabetes: The Rio de Janeiro Type 2 Diabetes Cohort Study

Outcome

Glycemic parameter

12-month glycemic variability

24-month glycemic variability

Model 1

HR (95% CI)

Model 2

HR (95% CI)

Model 3

HR (95% CI)

Model 1

HR (95% CI)

Model 2

HR (95% CI)

Model 3

HR (95% CI)

Total CV events

n = 128

FG-SD

2.85 (1.79–4.54)*

2.08 (1.22–3.54)†

1.71 (0.94–3.10)

2.39 (1.52–3.77)*

1.60 (0.95–2.72)

1.22 (0.68–2.21)

FG-VC

2.35 (1.49–3.68)*

1.82 (1.10–3.01)‡

1.62 (0.97–2.71)

2.54 (1.62–3.99)*

1.97 (1.18–3.31)‡

1.76 (1.04–3.00)‡

HbA1c-SD

1.93 (1.26–2.95)†

1.44 (0.91–2.28)

1.04 (0.59–1.82)

1.87 (1.22–2.87)†

1.43 (0.90–2.25)

1.03 (0.59–1.79)

HbA1c-VC

1.76 (1.15–2.71)‡

1.47 (0.94–2.29)

1.18 (0.72–1.92)

2.01 (1.31–3.11)†

1.69 (1.07–2.66)‡

1.38 (0.84–2.26)

Major CV events

n = 96

FG-SD

2.74 (1.63–4.61)*

1.83 (1.01–3.32)‡

1.37 (0.70–2.68)

2.64 (1.56–4.48)*

1.64 (0.89–3.03)

1.24 (0.63–2.44)

FG-VC

1.92 (1.16–3.19)‡

1.42 (0.81–2.49)

1.31 (0.73–2.33)

2.37 (1.42–3.97)†

1.69 (0.94–3.05)

1.54 (0.85–2.80)

HbA1c-SD

2.47 (1.51–4.05)*

1.73 (1.03–2.93)‡

1.39 (0.75–2.57)

2.42 (1.47–3.99)†

1.67 (0.98–2.86)

1.30 (0.70–2.43)

HbA1c-VC

2.17 (1.34–3.51)†

1.71 (1.04–2.82)‡

1.43 (0.83–2.44)

2.33 (1.43–3.79)†

1.78 (1.07–2.97)‡

1.49 (0.86–2.57)

CV mortality

n = 67

FG-SD

3.26 (1.73–6.13)*

2.67 (1.28–5.59)†

1.85 (0.81–4.24)

3.27 (1.72–6.22)*

2.50 (1.17–5.33)‡

1.72 (0.75–3.96)

FG-VC

2.26 (1.20–4.24)‡

1.92 (0.94–3.94)

1.60 (0.76–3.37)

3.23 (1.68–6.21)*

2.82 (1.34–5.95)†

2.41 (1.13–5.17)‡

HbA1c-SD

3.18 (1.77–5.71)*

2.60 (1.38–4.91)†

2.07 (0.97–4.40)

3.02 (1.65–5.51)*

2.40 (1.25–4.62)†

1.72 (0.80–3.71)

HbA1c-VC

2.74 (1.53–4.89)†

2.22 (1.22–4.06)†

1.78 (0.92–3.44)

2.81 (1.57–5.02)*

2.33 (1.26–4.32)†

1.81 (0.93–3.54)

All-cause mortality

n = 158

FG-SD

3.20 (2.14–4.79)*

2.62 (1.64–4.17)*

2.60 (1.55–4.37)*

2.80 (1.86–4.21)*

2.05 (1.28–3.27)†

1.82 (1.09–3.06)‡

FG-VC

2.45 (1.63–3.69)*

2.07 (1.31–3.28)†

1.96 (1.22–3.14)†

2.71 (1.79–4.08)*

2.21 (1.39–3.51)*

2.06 (1.28–3.31)†

HbA1c-SD

2.15 (1.45–3.20)*

1.64 (1.07–2.51)‡

1.35 (0.80–2.25)

1.95 (1.31–2.91)*

1.48 (0.96–2.28)

1.10 (0.66–1.83)

HbA1c-VC

2.12 (1.43–3.15)*

1.72 (1.15–2.59)†

1.51 (0.97–2.35)

2.19 (1.46–3.27)*

1.76 (1.16–2.69)†

1.49 (0.95–2.34)

  1. Values are hazard ratios for the highest tertile subgroup in relation to the lowest one and 95% confidence intervals
  2. Model 1 is adjusted for age, sex and number of HbA1c or FG measurements
  3. Model 2 is further adjusted for diabetes duration, BMI, smoking status, physical inactivity, arterial hypertension, number of anti-hypertensive drugs in use, ambulatory 24-h SBP, presence of micro- and macrovascular complications at baseline, serum mean HDL- and LDL-cholesterol, and use of insulin, statins and aspirin
  4. Model 3 is further adjusted for mean fasting glycemia and HbA1c
  5. HR hazard ratio, CI confidence interval, CV cardiovascular, FG-SD fasting glucose standard deviation, FG-VC fasting glucose variation coefficient, HbA 1c -SD glycated hemoglobin standard deviation, HbA 1c -VC glycated hemoglobin variation coefficient
  6. * p < 0.001; † p < 0.01; ‡ p < 0.05