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Table 5 Results of Cox survival analyses for the excess risks associated with 12- and 24-month glycemic variability parameters, divided into tertiles, for the occurrence of future macrovascular complications and mortality

From: Long-term visit-to-visit glycemic variability as predictor of micro- and macrovascular complications in patients with type 2 diabetes: The Rio de Janeiro Type 2 Diabetes Cohort Study

Outcome Glycemic parameter 12-month glycemic variability 24-month glycemic variability
Model 1
HR (95% CI)
Model 2
HR (95% CI)
Model 3
HR (95% CI)
Model 1
HR (95% CI)
Model 2
HR (95% CI)
Model 3
HR (95% CI)
Total CV events
n = 128
FG-SD 2.85 (1.79–4.54)* 2.08 (1.22–3.54) 1.71 (0.94–3.10) 2.39 (1.52–3.77)* 1.60 (0.95–2.72) 1.22 (0.68–2.21)
FG-VC 2.35 (1.49–3.68)* 1.82 (1.10–3.01) 1.62 (0.97–2.71) 2.54 (1.62–3.99)* 1.97 (1.18–3.31) 1.76 (1.04–3.00)
HbA1c-SD 1.93 (1.26–2.95) 1.44 (0.91–2.28) 1.04 (0.59–1.82) 1.87 (1.22–2.87) 1.43 (0.90–2.25) 1.03 (0.59–1.79)
HbA1c-VC 1.76 (1.15–2.71) 1.47 (0.94–2.29) 1.18 (0.72–1.92) 2.01 (1.31–3.11) 1.69 (1.07–2.66) 1.38 (0.84–2.26)
Major CV events
n = 96
FG-SD 2.74 (1.63–4.61)* 1.83 (1.01–3.32) 1.37 (0.70–2.68) 2.64 (1.56–4.48)* 1.64 (0.89–3.03) 1.24 (0.63–2.44)
FG-VC 1.92 (1.16–3.19) 1.42 (0.81–2.49) 1.31 (0.73–2.33) 2.37 (1.42–3.97) 1.69 (0.94–3.05) 1.54 (0.85–2.80)
HbA1c-SD 2.47 (1.51–4.05)* 1.73 (1.03–2.93) 1.39 (0.75–2.57) 2.42 (1.47–3.99) 1.67 (0.98–2.86) 1.30 (0.70–2.43)
HbA1c-VC 2.17 (1.34–3.51) 1.71 (1.04–2.82) 1.43 (0.83–2.44) 2.33 (1.43–3.79) 1.78 (1.07–2.97) 1.49 (0.86–2.57)
CV mortality
n = 67
FG-SD 3.26 (1.73–6.13)* 2.67 (1.28–5.59) 1.85 (0.81–4.24) 3.27 (1.72–6.22)* 2.50 (1.17–5.33) 1.72 (0.75–3.96)
FG-VC 2.26 (1.20–4.24) 1.92 (0.94–3.94) 1.60 (0.76–3.37) 3.23 (1.68–6.21)* 2.82 (1.34–5.95) 2.41 (1.13–5.17)
HbA1c-SD 3.18 (1.77–5.71)* 2.60 (1.38–4.91) 2.07 (0.97–4.40) 3.02 (1.65–5.51)* 2.40 (1.25–4.62) 1.72 (0.80–3.71)
HbA1c-VC 2.74 (1.53–4.89) 2.22 (1.22–4.06) 1.78 (0.92–3.44) 2.81 (1.57–5.02)* 2.33 (1.26–4.32) 1.81 (0.93–3.54)
All-cause mortality
n = 158
FG-SD 3.20 (2.14–4.79)* 2.62 (1.64–4.17)* 2.60 (1.55–4.37)* 2.80 (1.86–4.21)* 2.05 (1.28–3.27) 1.82 (1.09–3.06)
FG-VC 2.45 (1.63–3.69)* 2.07 (1.31–3.28) 1.96 (1.22–3.14) 2.71 (1.79–4.08)* 2.21 (1.39–3.51)* 2.06 (1.28–3.31)
HbA1c-SD 2.15 (1.45–3.20)* 1.64 (1.07–2.51) 1.35 (0.80–2.25) 1.95 (1.31–2.91)* 1.48 (0.96–2.28) 1.10 (0.66–1.83)
HbA1c-VC 2.12 (1.43–3.15)* 1.72 (1.15–2.59) 1.51 (0.97–2.35) 2.19 (1.46–3.27)* 1.76 (1.16–2.69) 1.49 (0.95–2.34)
  1. Values are hazard ratios for the highest tertile subgroup in relation to the lowest one and 95% confidence intervals
  2. Model 1 is adjusted for age, sex and number of HbA1c or FG measurements
  3. Model 2 is further adjusted for diabetes duration, BMI, smoking status, physical inactivity, arterial hypertension, number of anti-hypertensive drugs in use, ambulatory 24-h SBP, presence of micro- and macrovascular complications at baseline, serum mean HDL- and LDL-cholesterol, and use of insulin, statins and aspirin
  4. Model 3 is further adjusted for mean fasting glycemia and HbA1c
  5. HR hazard ratio, CI confidence interval, CV cardiovascular, FG-SD fasting glucose standard deviation, FG-VC fasting glucose variation coefficient, HbA 1c -SD glycated hemoglobin standard deviation, HbA 1c -VC glycated hemoglobin variation coefficient
  6. * p < 0.001;  p < 0.01;  p < 0.05