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Table 3 Results of Cox survival analyses for the excess risks associated with 12- and 24-month glycemic variability parameters, analyzed as continuous variables, for the occurrence of future macrovascular complications and mortality

From: Long-term visit-to-visit glycemic variability as predictor of micro- and macrovascular complications in patients with type 2 diabetes: The Rio de Janeiro Type 2 Diabetes Cohort Study

Outcome Glycemic parameter 12-month glycemic variability 24-month glycemic variability
Model 1
HR (95% CI)
Model 2
HR (95% CI)
Model 3
HR (95% CI)
Model 1
HR (95% CI)
Model 2
HR (95% CI)
Model 3
HR (95% CI)
Total CV events
n = 128
FG-SD 1.48 (1.28–1.70)* 1.30 (1.10–1.54) 1.23 (1.00–1.51) 1.54 (1.34–1.78)* 1.41 (1.18–1.67)* 1.36 (1.09–1.69)
FG-VC 1.48 (1.25–1.74)* 1.33 (1.10–1.61) 1.26 (1.04–1.54) 1.58 (1.33–1.88)* 1.44 (1.18–1.75)* 1.37 (1.12–1.69)
HbA1c-SD 1.33 (1.15–1.53)* 1.22 (1.05–1.42) 1.11 (0.91–1.34) 1.39 (1.21–1.60)* 1.29 (1.11–1.49) 1.20 (1.00–1.44)
HbA1c-VC 1.26 (1.09–1.46) 1.19 (1.03–1.38) 1.10 (0.93–1.30) 1.32 (1.14–1.52)* 1.25 (1.08–1.44) 1.17 (0.99–1.38)
HbA1c-MEANa 1.24 (0.96–1.60) 1.18 (0.93–1.49)
Major CV events
n = 96
FG-SD 1.51 (1.28–1.77)* 1.33 (1.09–1.61) 1.19 (0.94–1.51) 1.54 (1.30–1.82)* 1.35 (1.10–1.65) 1.23 (0.96–1.59)
FG-VC 1.46 (1.20–1.77)* 1.31 (1.05–1.63) 1.24 (0.99–1.57) 1.53 (1.25–1.87)* 1.34 (1.06–1.69) 1.29 (1.01–1.64)
HbA1c-SD 1.40 (1.19–1.63)* 1.28 (1.08–1.51) 1.19 (0.97–1.46) 1.44 (1.23–1.68)* 1.31 (1.11–1.55) 1.23 (1.00–1.51)
HbA1c-VC 1.34 (1.14–1.57)* 1.25 (1.06–1.47) 1.17 (0.98–1.41) 1.37 (1.17–1.61)* 1.28 (1.08–1.50) 1.21 (1.01–1.44)
HbA1c-MEANa 1.14 (0.85–1.53) 1.16 (0.88–1.52)
CV mortality
n = 67
FG-SD 1.51 (1.26–1.82)* 1.47 (1.17–1.86)* 1.29 (0.97–1.73) 1.65 (1.36–2.00)* 1.64 (1.29–2.09)* 1.50 (1.10–2.03)
FG-VC 1.51 (1.21–1.89)* 1.48 (1.14–1.92) 1.37 (1.04–1.81) 1.70 (1.34–2.16)* 1.64 (1.25–2.15)* 1.56 (1.17–2.06)
HbA1c-SD 1.51 (1.27–1.80)* 1.38 (1.14–1.67)* 1.24 (0.97–1.58) 1.54 (1.29–1.85)* 1.42 (1.17–1.72)* 1.26 (0.99–1.61)
HbA1c-VC 1.43 (1.20–1.71)* 1.35 (1.12–1.62) 1.23 (1.00–1.52) 1.44 (1.21–1.73)* 1.37 (1.13–1.65)* 1.24 (1.01–1.54)
HbA1c-MEANa 1.28 (0.88–1.84) 1.27 (0.91–1.79)
All-cause mortality
n = 158
FG-SD 1.51 (1.34–1.71)* 1.42 (1.23–1.65)* 1.44 (1.20–1.73)* 1.60 (1.41–1.81)* 1.54 (1.32–1.79)* 1.59 (1.32–1.93)*
FG-VC 1.53 (1.33–1.77)* 1.45 (1.24–1.71)* 1.43 (1.20–1.69)* 1.66 (1.42–1.93)* 1.55 (1.31–1.85)* 1.53 (1.28–1.82)*
HbA1c-SD 1.41 (1.25–1.60)* 1.29 (1.13–1.48)* 1.25 (1.06–1.47) 1.42 (1.25–1.61)* 1.30 (1.14–1.49)* 1.23 (1.04–1.46)
HbA1c-VC 1.35 (1.19–1.52)* 1.26 (1.11–1.44)* 1.21 (1.04–1.40) 1.34 (1.18–1.52)* 1.25 (1.10–1.43)* 1.19 (1.02–1.38)
HbA1c-MEANa 1.07 (0.84–1.35) 1.08 (0.87–1.34)
  1. Values are hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals, estimated for increases of 1-SD in each glycemic parameter
  2. Model 1 is adjusted for age, sex and number of HbA1c or FG measurements
  3. Model 2 is further adjusted for diabetes duration, BMI, smoking status, physical inactivity, arterial hypertension, number of anti-hypertensive drugs in use, ambulatory 24-h SBP, presence of micro- and macrovascular complications at baseline, serum mean HDL- and LDL-cholesterol, and use of insulin, statins and aspirin
  4. Model 3 is further adjusted for mean fasting glycemia and HbA1c
  5. HR hazard ratio, CI confidence interval, CV cardiovascular, FG-SD fasting glucose standard deviation, FG-VC fasting glucose variation coefficient, HbA 1c -SD glycated hemoglobin standard deviation, HbA 1c -VC glycated hemoglobin variation coefficient, HbA 1c -MEAN mean glycated hemoglobin during the same time interval
  6. * p < 0.001;  p < 0.01;  p < 0.05
  7. aThe HR of HbA1c-MEAN was estimated also for increases of 1-SD in the model with the highest HR of the glycemic variability parameter, whichever it was