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Table 3 Results of Cox survival analyses for the excess risks associated with 12- and 24-month glycemic variability parameters, analyzed as continuous variables, for the occurrence of future macrovascular complications and mortality

From: Long-term visit-to-visit glycemic variability as predictor of micro- and macrovascular complications in patients with type 2 diabetes: The Rio de Janeiro Type 2 Diabetes Cohort Study

Outcome

Glycemic parameter

12-month glycemic variability

24-month glycemic variability

Model 1

HR (95% CI)

Model 2

HR (95% CI)

Model 3

HR (95% CI)

Model 1

HR (95% CI)

Model 2

HR (95% CI)

Model 3

HR (95% CI)

Total CV events

n = 128

FG-SD

1.48 (1.28–1.70)*

1.30 (1.10–1.54)†

1.23 (1.00–1.51)

1.54 (1.34–1.78)*

1.41 (1.18–1.67)*

1.36 (1.09–1.69)†

FG-VC

1.48 (1.25–1.74)*

1.33 (1.10–1.61)†

1.26 (1.04–1.54)‡

1.58 (1.33–1.88)*

1.44 (1.18–1.75)*

1.37 (1.12–1.69)†

HbA1c-SD

1.33 (1.15–1.53)*

1.22 (1.05–1.42)†

1.11 (0.91–1.34)

1.39 (1.21–1.60)*

1.29 (1.11–1.49)†

1.20 (1.00–1.44)

HbA1c-VC

1.26 (1.09–1.46)†

1.19 (1.03–1.38)‡

1.10 (0.93–1.30)

1.32 (1.14–1.52)*

1.25 (1.08–1.44)†

1.17 (0.99–1.38)

HbA1c-MEANa

–

–

1.24 (0.96–1.60)

–

–

1.18 (0.93–1.49)

Major CV events

n = 96

FG-SD

1.51 (1.28–1.77)*

1.33 (1.09–1.61)†

1.19 (0.94–1.51)

1.54 (1.30–1.82)*

1.35 (1.10–1.65)†

1.23 (0.96–1.59)

FG-VC

1.46 (1.20–1.77)*

1.31 (1.05–1.63)‡

1.24 (0.99–1.57)

1.53 (1.25–1.87)*

1.34 (1.06–1.69)‡

1.29 (1.01–1.64)‡

HbA1c-SD

1.40 (1.19–1.63)*

1.28 (1.08–1.51)†

1.19 (0.97–1.46)

1.44 (1.23–1.68)*

1.31 (1.11–1.55)†

1.23 (1.00–1.51)‡

HbA1c-VC

1.34 (1.14–1.57)*

1.25 (1.06–1.47)†

1.17 (0.98–1.41)

1.37 (1.17–1.61)*

1.28 (1.08–1.50)†

1.21 (1.01–1.44)‡

HbA1c-MEANa

–

–

1.14 (0.85–1.53)

–

–

1.16 (0.88–1.52)

CV mortality

n = 67

FG-SD

1.51 (1.26–1.82)*

1.47 (1.17–1.86)*

1.29 (0.97–1.73)

1.65 (1.36–2.00)*

1.64 (1.29–2.09)*

1.50 (1.10–2.03)†

FG-VC

1.51 (1.21–1.89)*

1.48 (1.14–1.92)†

1.37 (1.04–1.81)‡

1.70 (1.34–2.16)*

1.64 (1.25–2.15)*

1.56 (1.17–2.06)†

HbA1c-SD

1.51 (1.27–1.80)*

1.38 (1.14–1.67)*

1.24 (0.97–1.58)

1.54 (1.29–1.85)*

1.42 (1.17–1.72)*

1.26 (0.99–1.61)

HbA1c-VC

1.43 (1.20–1.71)*

1.35 (1.12–1.62)†

1.23 (1.00–1.52)‡

1.44 (1.21–1.73)*

1.37 (1.13–1.65)*

1.24 (1.01–1.54)‡

HbA1c-MEANa

–

–

1.28 (0.88–1.84)

–

–

1.27 (0.91–1.79)

All-cause mortality

n = 158

FG-SD

1.51 (1.34–1.71)*

1.42 (1.23–1.65)*

1.44 (1.20–1.73)*

1.60 (1.41–1.81)*

1.54 (1.32–1.79)*

1.59 (1.32–1.93)*

FG-VC

1.53 (1.33–1.77)*

1.45 (1.24–1.71)*

1.43 (1.20–1.69)*

1.66 (1.42–1.93)*

1.55 (1.31–1.85)*

1.53 (1.28–1.82)*

HbA1c-SD

1.41 (1.25–1.60)*

1.29 (1.13–1.48)*

1.25 (1.06–1.47)†

1.42 (1.25–1.61)*

1.30 (1.14–1.49)*

1.23 (1.04–1.46)‡

HbA1c-VC

1.35 (1.19–1.52)*

1.26 (1.11–1.44)*

1.21 (1.04–1.40)‡

1.34 (1.18–1.52)*

1.25 (1.10–1.43)*

1.19 (1.02–1.38)‡

HbA1c-MEANa

–

–

1.07 (0.84–1.35)

–

–

1.08 (0.87–1.34)

  1. Values are hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals, estimated for increases of 1-SD in each glycemic parameter
  2. Model 1 is adjusted for age, sex and number of HbA1c or FG measurements
  3. Model 2 is further adjusted for diabetes duration, BMI, smoking status, physical inactivity, arterial hypertension, number of anti-hypertensive drugs in use, ambulatory 24-h SBP, presence of micro- and macrovascular complications at baseline, serum mean HDL- and LDL-cholesterol, and use of insulin, statins and aspirin
  4. Model 3 is further adjusted for mean fasting glycemia and HbA1c
  5. HR hazard ratio, CI confidence interval, CV cardiovascular, FG-SD fasting glucose standard deviation, FG-VC fasting glucose variation coefficient, HbA 1c -SD glycated hemoglobin standard deviation, HbA 1c -VC glycated hemoglobin variation coefficient, HbA 1c -MEAN mean glycated hemoglobin during the same time interval
  6. * p < 0.001; † p < 0.01; ‡ p < 0.05
  7. aThe HR of HbA1c-MEAN was estimated also for increases of 1-SD in the model with the highest HR of the glycemic variability parameter, whichever it was
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Cardiovascular Diabetology

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