Cumulative increased risk of incident type 2 diabetes mellitus with increasing triglyceride glucose index in normal-weight people: The Rural Chinese Cohort Study

Table 4 Risk of incident T2DM for participants without metabolic syndrome and impaired FPG level at baseline

	Quartile 1	Quartile 2	Quartile 3	Quartile 4	P _trend
TyG
Range	<8.09	8.09 to 8.39	8.40 to 8.68	≥8.69
No. of cases	12	15	32	37
No. of person-years	7078.67	6945.58	6914.00	6832.42
Incidence rate^a	1.70	2.16	4.63	5.42	<0.001
Unadjusted model	1 (ref)	1.42 (0.67–3.04)	3.10 (1.60–6.03)	3.75 (1.95–7.23)	<0.001
Multivariable adjusted model 1^b	1 (ref)	1.19 (0.43–3.30)	3.50 (1.50–8.16)	4.36 (1.89–10.05)	<0.001
Multivariable adjusted model 2^c	1 (ref)	1.25 (0.45–3.46)	3.68 (1.57–8.60)	4.54 (1.97–10.47)	<0.001
Multivariable adjusted model 3^d	1 (ref)	1.34 (0.48–3.76)	4.29 (1.72–10.67)	5.88 (2.06–16.76)	<0.001
TyG-D
Range	<−0.23	−0.23 to 0	0.01 to 0.35	≥0.35
No. of cases	17	14	20	45
No. of person-years	6912.75	7101.50	6797.33	6959.08
Incidence rate^a	2.46	1.97	2.94	6.47	<0.001
Unadjusted model	1 (ref)	0.78 (0.37–1.64)	1.37 (0.69–2.70)	2.40 (1.31–4.39)	<0.001
Multivariable adjusted model 1^b	1 (ref)	0.78 (0.33–1.84)	0.97 (0.41–2.28)	2.86 (1.40–5.84)	<0.001
Multivariable adjusted model 2^c	1 (ref)	0.80 (0.34–1.90)	0.98 (0.42–2.32)	2.90 (1.42–5.93)	<0.001
Multivariable adjusted model 3^d	1 (ref)	0.99 (0.42–2.36)	1.43 (0.60–3.43)	4.56 (2.14–9.70)	<0.001

Data are hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs)
^aPer 1000 person-years
^bAdjusted for gender, age, family history of diabetes and WC
^cAdjusted for variables in ^b as well as education level, marital status, smoking, alcohol consumption and physical activity
^dAdjusted for variables in ^c as well as SBP, DBP and TC, HDL-C and LDL-C levels

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