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Table 5 The forecast frequency of vascular endpoints and cost-effectiveness using insulin glargine or exenatide per 1,000 patients over 40 years under the three discontinuation scenarios.
| No discontinuation | Failures excluded | Failures switched | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exenatide | Glargine | Δ | Exenatide | Glargine | Δ | Exenatide | Glargine | Δ | |
| Macrovascular | |||||||||
| Ischaemic Heart Disease | 122.2 | 121.2 | -1.06 | 111.1 | 121.4 | 10.32 | 121.8 | 121.4 | -0.36 |
| Myocardial Infarction | 387.4 | 388.2 | 0.82 | 351.9 | 387.7 | 35.79 | 386.1 | 387.7 | 1.61 |
| Congestive heart Failure | 84.9 | 92.6 | 7.68 | 77.7 | 92.3 | 14.59 | 85.4 | 92.3 | 6.87 |
| Stroke | 98.9 | 99.7 | 0.74 | 90.1 | 98.3 | 8.19 | 99.2 | 98.3 | -0.89 |
| Microvascular | |||||||||
| Retinopathy | 55.5 | 55.4 | -0.03 | 50.7 | 55.4 | 4.73 | 55.3 | 55.4 | 0.11 |
| Nephropathy | 14.1 | 13.8 | -0.29 | 12.7 | 14.1 | 1.41 | 14.1 | 14.1 | -0.01 |
| Neuropathy | 12.9 | 12.9 | 0.04 | 11.8 | 12.9 | 1.13 | 13.1 | 12.9 | -0.14 |
| Hypoglycaemia events | |||||||||
| Nocturnal | 12901.2 | 34259.8 | 21358.6 | 11754.3 | 34269.6 | 22515.3 | 14804.9 | 34269.6 | 19464.7 |
| Symptomatic | 94479.7 | 55672.2 | -38807.5 | 86080.9 | 55688.1 | -30392.8 | 91090.4 | 55688.1 | -35402.3 |
| Severe | 6622.0 | 6597.5 | -24.5 | 6036.2 | 6598.1 | 561.9 | 6626.2 | 6598.1 | -28.2 |
| Fatal | |||||||||
| Macrovascular | 453.5 | 458.2 | 4.68 | 412.8 | 457.3 | 44.53 | 453.3 | 457.282 | 4.008 |
| Microvascular | 12.7 | 12.7 | -0.02 | 11.6 | 12.8 | 1.18 | 12.9 | 12.752 | -0.154 |
| Other | 532.8 | 528.1 | -4.68 | 486.0 | 529.0 | 42.99 | 532.8 | 529.0 | -3.845 |
| Cost effectiveness | |||||||||
| Discounted costs | £14,567,526 | £9,280,312 | £13,255,912 | £9,296,371 | £14,092,624 | £9,296,371 | |||
| Discounted QALYS | 7,683 | 7,864 | 7,000 | 7,865 | 7,703 | 7,865 | |||
| ICER (£/QALY) | Dominant (-£29,149) | Dominant (-£4,579) | Dominant (-£29,657) | ||||||
