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Table 5 Expected twenty years incidence of cardiovascular complications and life expectancy by gender, time of evolution and age of diagnosis

From: Estimated incidence of cardiovascular complications related to type 2 diabetes in Mexico using the UKPDS outcome model and a population-based survey

Complication

Probability (95% CI)

Expected Cases (95% CI)

Probability (95% CI)

Expected Cases (95% CI)

Probability (CI95%)

Expected Cases* (CI95%)

 

Women

n = 3,931,127

Time evolution

≤ 10 years

n = 6,652,964

Age at diagnosis

≤ 40 years

n = 2,590,066

Ischemic heart

0.095

(0.066-0.124)

373,457

(259,454-487,460)

0.117

(0.089-0.145)

778,397

(592,114-964,680)

0.087

(0.060-0.115)

225,336

(155,404-297,858)

Myocardial infarction

0.196

(0.142-0.249)

770,501

(558,220-978,851)

0.264

(0.223-0.305)

1,756,382

(1,483,611-2,029,154)

0.129

(0.096-0.162)

334,119

(248,646-419,591)

Heart failure

0.127

(0.072-0.183)

499,253

(283,041-719,396)

0.107

(0.065-0.148)

711,867

(432,443-984,639)

0.037

(0.016-0.058)

95,832

(41,441-150,224)

Cerebrovascular disease

0.093

(0.063-0.122)

365,595

(247,661-479,597)

0.097

(0.068-0.126)

645,338

(452,402-838,273)

0.030

(0.003-0.057)

77,702

(7,770-147,634)

Amputation

0.065

(0.040-0.089)

255,523

(157,245-349,870)

0.058

(0.040-0.077)

385,872

(266,119-512,278)

0.065

(0.036-0.094)

168,354

(93,242-243,466)

Death

0.531

(0.498-0.565)

2,087,428

(1,957,701-2,221,087)

0.467

(0.435-0.499)

3,106,934

(2,894,039-3,319,829)

0.283

(0.250-0.317)

7,332,989

(647,517-821,051)

 

Men

n = 3,961,850

Time evolution

> 10 years

n = 1,240,012

Age at diagnosis

> 40 years

n = 5,302,911

Ischemic heart disease

0.136

(0.102-0.170)

538,812

(404,109-673,515)

0.080

(0.050-0.110)

99,201

(62,001-136,401)

0.122

(0.091-0.152)

646,955

(482,565-806,042)

Myocardial infarction

0.352

(0.315-0.390)

1,394,571

(1,247,983-1,545,122)

0.231

(0.161-0.301)

286,443

(199,642-372,244)

0.315

(0.260-0.370)

1,670,417

(1,378,757-1,962,077)

Heart failure

0.091

(0.053-0.128)

360,528

(209,978-507,117)

0.148

(0.056-0.241)

183,522

(69,441-298,843)

0.145

(0.085-0.204)

768,922

(450,747-1,081,794)

Cerebrovascular disease

0.112

(0.074-0.149)

443,727

(293,177-590,316)

0.120

(0.065-0.175)

148,801

(80,601-217,002)

0.131

(0.094-0.168)

694,681

(498,474-890,889)

Amputation

0.059

(0.039-0.079)

233,749

(154,512-312,986)

0.088

(0.037-0.139)

109,121

(45,880-172,362)

0.062

(0.041-0.082)

328,780

(217,419-434,839)

Death

0.550

(0.522-0.578)

2,179,018

(2,068,086-2,289,949)

0.956

(0.928-0.984)

1,185,451

(1,150,731-1,220,172)

0.647

(0.612-0.681)

3,430,983

(3,245,382-3,611,282)