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Table 2 Expected incidence of cardiovascular complications in persons with diabetes in Mexico

From: Estimated incidence of cardiovascular complications related to type 2 diabetes in Mexico using the UKPDS outcome model and a population-based survey

Simulated years Accumulated probability Number of expected cases/1000 diabetics Confidence Interval 95% Total expected cases (CI95%)
Ischaemic heart disease
1 0.009 9 7 12 73,482
(52,026-94,939)
5 0.039 39 29 49 311,146
(232,355-389,936)
10 0.069 69 53 86 547,679
(415,306-680,052)
15 0.094 93 71 116 738,373
(557,617-919,129)
20 0.112 112 84 140 882,433
(661,744-1,103,123)
Myocardial infarction
1 0.019 20 13 26 155,025
(102,215-207,836)
5 0.088 88 67 109 695,535
(526,932-864,139)
10 0.159 159 128 191 1,258,903
(1,010,065-1,507,742)
15 0.216 217 178 255 1,710,383
(1,405,667-2,015,099)
20 0.259 260 215 304 2,048,996
(1,699,743-2,398,248)
Heart failure
1 0.010 10 5 16 81,640
(35,674-127,607)
5 0.039 40 22 57 311,887
(177,573-446-201)
10 0.069 70 41 98 551,131
(325,182-777,081)
15 0.094 94 55 133 742,646
(434,411-1,050,081)
20 0.112 113 65 161 889,443
(509,638-1,269-248)
Cerebrovascular disease
1 0.008 9 4 13 68,070
(35,505-100,636)
5 0.035 36 24 48 282,893
(186,677-379,110)
10 0.063 63 44 82 498,794
(348,475-649,112)
15 0.085 85 59 111 671,080
(469,221-872,938)
20 0.101 101 69 133 798,188
(544,809-1,051,568)
Amputation
1 0.006 7 2 11 51,666
(16,656-86,676)
5 0.021 22 12 31 170,582
(94,289-246,875)
10 0.036 36 23 49 282,205
(179,425-384,985)
15 0.049 49 32 66 389,413
(255,649-523,177)
20 0.062 62 40 85 491,236
(313,900-668,572)