Table 2 Expected incidence of cardiovascular complications in persons with diabetes in Mexico
Simulated years | Accumulated probability | Number of expected cases/1000 diabetics | Confidence Interval 95% | Total expected cases (CI95%) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ischaemic heart disease | |||||
1 | 0.009 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 73,482 (52,026-94,939) |
5 | 0.039 | 39 | 29 | 49 | 311,146 (232,355-389,936) |
10 | 0.069 | 69 | 53 | 86 | 547,679 (415,306-680,052) |
15 | 0.094 | 93 | 71 | 116 | 738,373 (557,617-919,129) |
20 | 0.112 | 112 | 84 | 140 | 882,433 (661,744-1,103,123) |
Myocardial infarction | |||||
1 | 0.019 | 20 | 13 | 26 | 155,025 (102,215-207,836) |
5 | 0.088 | 88 | 67 | 109 | 695,535 (526,932-864,139) |
10 | 0.159 | 159 | 128 | 191 | 1,258,903 (1,010,065-1,507,742) |
15 | 0.216 | 217 | 178 | 255 | 1,710,383 (1,405,667-2,015,099) |
20 | 0.259 | 260 | 215 | 304 | 2,048,996 (1,699,743-2,398,248) |
Heart failure | |||||
1 | 0.010 | 10 | 5 | 16 | 81,640 (35,674-127,607) |
5 | 0.039 | 40 | 22 | 57 | 311,887 (177,573-446-201) |
10 | 0.069 | 70 | 41 | 98 | 551,131 (325,182-777,081) |
15 | 0.094 | 94 | 55 | 133 | 742,646 (434,411-1,050,081) |
20 | 0.112 | 113 | 65 | 161 | 889,443 (509,638-1,269-248) |
Cerebrovascular disease | |||||
1 | 0.008 | 9 | 4 | 13 | 68,070 (35,505-100,636) |
5 | 0.035 | 36 | 24 | 48 | 282,893 (186,677-379,110) |
10 | 0.063 | 63 | 44 | 82 | 498,794 (348,475-649,112) |
15 | 0.085 | 85 | 59 | 111 | 671,080 (469,221-872,938) |
20 | 0.101 | 101 | 69 | 133 | 798,188 (544,809-1,051,568) |
Amputation | |||||
1 | 0.006 | 7 | 2 | 11 | 51,666 (16,656-86,676) |
5 | 0.021 | 22 | 12 | 31 | 170,582 (94,289-246,875) |
10 | 0.036 | 36 | 23 | 49 | 282,205 (179,425-384,985) |
15 | 0.049 | 49 | 32 | 66 | 389,413 (255,649-523,177) |
20 | 0.062 | 62 | 40 | 85 | 491,236 (313,900-668,572) |